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Broadcom Inc.·NASDAQ: AVGO· Q3 Fiscal 2026 Results Call· AI semis +221% Y/Y

The quarter AI became the business

Broadcom posted record revenue, operating income and free cash flow as custom accelerator shipments more than tripled year over year. Management guided fiscal 2026 AI revenue to $58B, then took the unusual step of laying out a two-year trajectory: $115B in FY27 and $230B in FY28 — roughly $350B of AI semiconductors across two years, with supply already secured for both.

Hock Tan President & CEO
Amy Tiner CFO
Charlie Kawwas President, Semiconductor Solutions Group
Ji Yoo Head of IR
Q3 Revenue $29.6B +86% Y/Y Company record
AI Semiconductors $16.7B +221% Y/Y · +54% Q/Q 56% of total revenue
Operating Income $20.1B +92% Y/Y 67.9% margin, +240 bps
Free Cash Flow $13.7B 46% of revenue Record
Non-GAAP EPS $3.32 +96% Y/Y Gross margin 75%
AI semiconductor revenue trajectory
Fiscal years, $ billions. FY27 and FY28 are management's stated outlook, not quarterly guidance — Broadcom says it will not update these figures each quarter.
FY 2026Guided
$58B
FY 2027Supply secured
$115B
FY 2028Line of sight
$230B
050100150200250
Reported

Q3 FY2026 results

Records across revenue, operating income and free cash flow, with mix shifting hard toward AI.

Consolidated

  • Revenue $29.6B, up 86% year over year — a company record.
  • Gross margin 75% of revenue, down 210 bps sequentially on richer AI semiconductor mix, but ahead of the 74% guide.
  • Operating income $20.1B, up 92% Y/Y. Operating margin 67.9% — a record and up 240 bps Y/Y despite the lower gross margin, purely on operating leverage.
  • Non-GAAP EPS $3.32, up 96% Y/Y.

Semiconductor Solutions segment

  • Revenue $20.8B (record), up 127% Y/Y, 70% of total company revenue.
  • AI semiconductor revenue $16.7B = 56% of total revenue, up from 49% in Q2.
  • Segment gross margin approximately 67% — Amy Tiner corrected this on the call after initially citing 76%.
  • Operating expenses $1.2B, just 6% of segment revenue; opex grew 22% Y/Y against 127% revenue growth.
  • Segment operating margin 61%, up 440 bps Y/Y.

Infrastructure Software segment

  • Revenue $8.8B, up 29% Y/Y, 30% of total revenue.
  • Gross margin 94%; opex just over $900M; operating margin ~84%, up 650 bps Y/Y.
  • Annual recurring revenue sustained at +15% Y/Y.

Non-AI semiconductors

  • Revenue $4.2B, up 5% Y/Y and flat sequentially.
  • Broadband and server storage were both up; wireless declined, partially offsetting.
The engine

AI semis in the quarter

Six XPU customers, four of them described as "simply going to be huge."

  • AI semiconductor revenue more than tripled Y/Y to $16.7B; up 54% sequentially. Hock Tan: "Q3 demand was simply hot and we're just getting started."
  • XPU shipments up over 3.5x Y/Y, representing 73% of AI revenue in the quarter.
  • AI networking revenue up over 2.5x Y/Y, with momentum continuing into Q4.

Silicon shipped in Q3

  • Ironwood (TPU v7) delivered in high volume to both Anthropic and Google.
  • TPU v8i entered production shipment for Google — more memory and bandwidth than Ironwood, inference-optimized, and per management comparable to or surpassing the Vera Rubin GPU in performance.
  • Competitive marker: Broadcom is shipping TPU v8i ahead of the MediaTek version, which was initiated earlier.
  • Jalapeño — OpenAI's first-generation custom accelerator — shipped, outperforming Grace Blackwell on inference workloads.

Q4 ramp already lined up

  • Accelerating Ironwood shipments to Anthropic.
  • Ramping high-volume TPU v8i to Google.
  • Continued Jalapeño shipments to OpenAI.
  • Production shipments of Meta's MTIA accelerator, optimized for inference and recommendation at scale.
  • Both XPUs and AI networking expected to triple Y/Y in Q4.
"When you co-develop a chip that is optimized for your particular LLM workloads, you will outperform any GPU — and you can do all this at half the cost of a GPU." Hock Tan, President & CEO
Customer by customer

The gigawatt roadmap

Management walked through each frontier-lab customer's deployment path through 2028.

Stated XPU deployment plans, by calendar year
Customer202620272028Standing
Google TPU v7 / v8i Multi-$10s B/yr Continues to grow Long-term agreement for future TPU and AI networking generations; demand in 2028–29 met by successive TPU generations in design today
Anthropic 1 GW 5 GW +10 GW Ironwood in 2026, TPU v8i in 2027; on track to be Broadcom's largest XPU customer in 2027 and sustain it in 2028
OpenAI Jalapeño ships 1.3 GW >5 GW Second-largest XPU customer by 2028; Gen-2 XPU approaching tapeout, Gen-3 already in development
Meta MTIA production 3 generations by YE27 3 GW cumulative Three MTIA accelerator generations between now and end of 2027, deploying through 2028

Why the labs are choosing custom silicon

  • OpenAI disclosed that Jalapeño outperforms Grace Blackwell Ultra on performance-per-watt, latency, throughput and power — and is comparable to Vera Rubin GPUs on OpenAI's own workloads.
  • Jalapeño also demonstrated it can run other frontier models, not just OpenAI's — at roughly half the cost of a GPU.
  • Tan's moat argument for Google: strongest semiconductor design IP portfolio — SerDes, chip-to-chip interconnect, leading-edge HBM and SRAM integration, differentiated advanced packaging — plus consistently fastest time to market with no respins.
  • On why labs won't defer to their cloud/funding partners: these customers want first-party compute and are becoming hyperscalers in their own right. Near term they rent third-party capacity; long term Tan expects them to run their own data centers and serve generative AI APIs directly. "It's not speculation, it is actually happening."
  • Only two of the six XPU customers need financing help — the other four are financially able to fund deployments themselves.
Beyond the XPU

Networking and optical

Expected to grow just as fast as XPUs over the next few years.

  • Tomahawk 6 — first to market at 100 terabits. Ships in both 100G and 200G SerDes versions; deployed at essentially all AI hyperscalers building XPUs with Broadcom and at those that aren't. Described as the fastest-ramping switch family in Broadcom's history.
  • Tomahawk 7 taped out — the industry's first 200 Tb/s Ethernet switch.
  • Tomahawk Ultra — scale-up networking over low-latency Ethernet, enabling rack-level GPU/XPU clustering on open Ethernet for the first time, matching prior proprietary options on loss and latency. Adoption "surprised us"; first deployments start this quarter and expand in FY27.
  • Attach rate: XPU customers are deploying Tomahawk 5 → 6 → Ultra, and scale-up solutions using them appear in both XPU and some GPU clusters — the open-Ethernet standard is the stated reason.
  • Leader in every generation of PCI Express switching.
  • Leading-edge optical DSPs, plus a leadership position in EMLs, VCSELs and CW lasers for optical interconnect — capacity being more than tripled year over year across US and Singapore indium phosphide fabs.
The other 30%

Infrastructure software

VMware is being repositioned as the enterprise on-ramp to private AI.

  • Q3 revenue $8.8B, up 29% Y/Y; Q4 guided to stabilize at ~$8.7B.
  • VMware Private AI Cloud announced — a secure, cost-effective platform for enterprises to build and run AI alongside existing applications, bundling AI infrastructure, security, compliance and tooling for trusted AI agents while keeping enterprise data protected.
  • VMware Cloud Foundation is making it easier to repatriate workloads from public cloud to private cloud for greater control and materially better infrastructure economics.
  • Management frames enterprise AI consumption as a new growth vector for the software business, not just a defensive play.
Forward

Q4 FY2026 guidance

Gross margin compresses again; operating margin holds flat on leverage.

Fourth quarter fiscal 2026 outlook
LineGuideChangeNote
Consolidated revenue$34.8B+93% Y/YAnother record
Semiconductors$26.1B+136% Y/Y
AI semiconductors$21.7B+236% Y/YXPUs and AI networking each roughly tripling
Non-AI semiconductors$4.3B+5% Q/Q
Infrastructure software$8.7B+24–25% Y/Y
Gross margin~73%vs 78% a year agoDiluted by XPU mix and rising memory content
Operating margin~66%Flat Y/YRevenue growth far outpaces opex growth
Non-GAAP tax rate~16%Q4 and FY26Global minimum tax plus geographic income mix
Diluted share count~4.94BExcludes any share repurchases
Capital expenditures$1.4Bvs $532M in Q3Semiconductor capacity investment
  • Full-year FY2026 AI revenue: $58B, up 186% Y/Y — raised from the prior $56B guidance.
  • On gross margin, Tan was blunt: "Stop focusing on gross margin… look at operating margin at the end of the day," because revenue growth far outpaces the opex needed to support it.
The headline number

FY27–FY28 AI outlook

Two consecutive doublings, with supply secured for both years.

  • FY2027 AI semiconductor revenue ~$115B — supply already secured. Demand exceeds this outlook; Broadcom will work to improve supply.
  • FY2028 AI semiconductor revenue ~$230B — doubling again, supply also secured.
  • Together, roughly $350B of AI semiconductors shipped to these six customers over two years.
  • Explicitly framed as a trajectory, not quarterly guidance — Broadcom does not intend to update these figures each quarter.
  • Content per gigawatt: $20–30B, and expected to stay in that range. Reason: each XPU generation is more expensive, but also draws more power — so fewer chips fit in a gigawatt, holding dollar content roughly stable while the number of gigawatts accelerates.
  • Compute demand from this concentrated group of frontier-model developers is expected to inflect further in 2027 and 2028.
Reading the gigawatt math — Stacy Rasgon's question
  • Adding up the disclosed plans gets to roughly 30 GW across 2027–2028 for the six customers. Tan confirmed the arithmetic but drew a distinction: that is demand, not deployment.
  • Chips alone don't make a gigawatt — the data center shell has to be ready. Broadcom deliberately guided to less than the full 30 GW converting inside those two fiscal years.
  • Tan's reframe: "We believe with a pretty high degree of confidence we will ship $350 billion of AI semiconductors to these customers in the next two years" — regardless of whether all 30 GW lands in the window.
  • On the implied ~$11–12B revenue per gigawatt versus a competitor's ~$40B: Tan's answer was that the gap is the point — the XPU matches or beats GPU performance at less than half the cost.
Balance sheet

Cash, debt and returns

Record free cash flow funding both deleveraging and the dividend.

  • Free cash flow $13.7B — a record, and 46% of revenue.
  • Cash ended at $24B, up $4.3B sequentially from $19.6B.
  • Inventory $4.5B, built to support semiconductor demand.
  • Capex $532M in Q3, stepping up to $1.4B guided for Q4.
  • Dividends paid $3.1B at $0.65 per share quarterly.
  • Paid down $5.6B of long-term debt in Q3, plus another $1.5B of senior notes at maturity after quarter end.
  • Gross principal fixed-rate debt of $59.6B carries a 4% weighted-average coupon and 7.4 years to maturity.
Off balance sheet

The XPV financing platform

Broadcom is helping fund two customers without carrying the paper itself.

  • Established in June with Apollo and Blackstone to enable more than 20 GW of compute infrastructure for OpenAI and Anthropic by end of 2028.
  • First tranche of $35B closed in June, funding Anthropic's 1 GW deployment, already underway.
  • Structure: third-party financial partners independently underwrite and capitalize the assets — Broadcom is not the direct lender. Where necessary it provides modest residual value guarantees, treated as contingent liabilities it views as low risk given lab profitability trajectories and asset value.
  • Three stated rationales: bridge the labs' cash flow versus upfront investment; concentrate capital where demand is already locked in; and review every financing through both a commercial and balance-sheet lens.
  • Tan's investment case: each gigawatt of deployed compute can generate roughly $30B of ARR for the customer. "That's a hell of a business model."
  • No new backstops or residual value guarantees announced. Asked whether the ~$29B maximum exposure disclosed in the last 10-Q scales per gigawatt, Tiner declined to generalize — future tranches will be tailored deal by deal to each lab and investor.
  • Credit context: Anthropic is described as well on its way to an IPO, which would change its investment credit; OpenAI's path is less clear.
Constraints

What actually gates the ramp

A multi-dimensional bottleneck problem, with the binding constraint rotating over time.

  • Land, power and shell (LPS) — the dominant timing constraint. Long-lead construction dictates when capacity actually comes online, and Broadcom validates customer LPS plans before putting demand into its forecast.
  • Substrates — Broadcom is standing up its own substrate capacity at scale in Singapore, in production starting fiscal 2027, with a partner.
  • Memory — HBM plus the system memory in AI servers, which Broadcom does not supply but its customers must secure.
  • Leading-edge wafers.
  • Lasers — EML and CW laser demand far exceeds industry supply; Broadcom is more than tripling indium phosphide capacity Y/Y in the US and Singapore.
  • Tan on the guidance philosophy: "We try to be conservative… we can ship significantly more." The open question is whether shipped chips get deployed on a timely basis. If supply improves, the outlook goes up.
  • A wry note on customer concentration: "Which is why in some ways I'm so glad we have only six customers to deal with."